Tag: overconfidence

Structured expert judgment using the Classical Method

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The Classical Model has been employed in a structured expert judgement study into climate change.

When complex decisions must be made while data is unavailable, structured expert judgment can be used to combine uncertainty distributions resulting from experts’ assessments. Roger Cooke, the Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow at Resources for the Future, and Emeritus Professor at Delft University of Technology, created the well-known Classical Model to quantify uncertainty using expert opinion. Together with Dr Tina Nane, […]

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